Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps

The October 2005 earthquake triggered several thousand landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Kashmir in northern Pakistan and India. Analyses of ASTER satellite imagery from 2001 were compared with a study undertaken in 2005; the results show the extent and nature of pre- and co-/post-seismic landsliding. Within a designated study area of ~2,250 km², the number of landslides increased from 369 in 2001 to 2,252 in October 2005. Assuming a balanced baseline landsliding frequency over the 4 years, most of the new landslides were likely triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks. These landslides mainly happened in specific geologic formations, along faults, rivers and roads, and in shrubland/grassland and agricultural land. Preliminary results from repeat photographs from 2005 and 2006 after the snowmelt season reveal that much of the ongoing landsliding occurred along rivers and roads, and the extensive earthquake-induced fissuring. Although the susceptibility zoning success rate for 2001 was low, many of the co-/post-seismic landsliding in 2005 occurred in areas that had been defined as being potentially dangerous on the 2001 map. While most of the area in 2001 was (very) highly susceptible to future landsliding, most of the area in 2005 was only moderate to low susceptible, that is, most of the landsliding in 2005 actually occurred in the potentially dangerous areas on the 2001 map. This study supports the view that although susceptibility zoning maps represent a powerful tool in natural hazard management, caution is needed when developing and using such maps.     

Wind stress forcing of the North Sea 'pole tide'

We conduct numerical simulations of the wind forcing of sea level variations in the North Sea using a barotropic ocean model with realistic geography and bathymetry to examine the forcing of the 14 month 'pole tide', which is known to be anomalously large along the Denmark–Netherlands coast. The simulation input is the monthly mean surface wind stress field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis for the 40 year period 1958–1997. The ocean model output sea level response is then compared with 10 coastal tide gauge records from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) over the same period of time. Besides the strong seasonal variations, several prominent quasi-periodicities exist near 7 years, 3 years, 14 months, 9 months and 6.5 months. Correlations and spectral analyses show remarkable agreement between the model output and the observations, particularly in the 14 month, or Chandler, period band. The latter indicates that the enhanced pole tide found in the North Sea along the Denmark–Netherlands coast is actually the coastal set-up response to wind stress forcing with a periodicity of around 14 months. We find no need to invoke a geophysical explanation involving resonance enhancement of the pole tide in the North Sea to explain the observations.     

Predicting gully densities at sub-continental scales: a case study for the Horn of Africa

Despite its environmental and scientific significance, predicting gully erosion remains problematic. This is especially so in strongly contrasting and degraded regions such as the Horn of Africa. Machine learning algorithms such as random forests (RF) offer great potential to deal with the complex, often non-linear, nature of factors controlling gully erosion. Nonetheless, their applicability at regional to continental scales remains largely untested. Moreover, such algorithms require large amounts of observations for model training and testing. Collecting such data remains an important bottleneck. Here we help to address these gaps by developing and testing a methodology to simulate gully densities across Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti (total area: 1.2 million km²). We propose a methodology to quickly assess the gully head density (GHD) for representative 1 km² study sites by visually scoring the presence of gullies in Google Earth and then converting these scores to realistic estimates of GHD. Based on this approach, we compiled GHD observations for 1,700 sites. We used these data to train sets of RF regression models that simulate GHD at a 1 km² resolution, based on topographic/geomorphic, land cover, soil and rainfall conditions. Our approach also accounts for uncertainties in GHD observations. Independent validations showed generally acceptable simulations of regional GHD patterns. We further show that: (i) model performance strongly depends on the amount of training data used, (ii) large prediction errors mainly occur in areas where also the predicted uncertainty is large and (iii) collecting additional training data for these areas results in more drastic model performance improvements. Analyses of the feature importance of predictor variables further showed that patterns of GHD across the Horn of Africa strongly depend on NDVI and annual rainfall, but also on normalized steepness index (k_sn) and distance to rivers. Overall, our work opens promising perspectives to assess gully densities at continental scales. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emergent characteristics of rockfall inventories captured at a regional scale

High-resolution rockfall inventories captured at a regional scale are scarce. This is partly owing to difficulties in measuring the range of possible rockfall volumes with sufficient accuracy and completeness, and at a scale exceeding the influence of localized controls. This paucity of data restricts our ability to abstract patterns of erosion, identify long-term changes in behaviour and assess how rockfalls respond to changes in rock mass structural and environmental conditions. We have addressed this by developing a workflow that is tailored to monitoring rockfalls and the resulting cliff retreat continuously (in space), in three-dimensional (3D) and over large spatial scales (>10⁴ m). We tested our approach by analysing rockfall activity along 20.5 km of coastal cliffs in North Yorkshire (UK), in what we understand to be the first multi-temporal detection of rockfalls at a regional scale. We show that rockfall magnitude–frequency relationships, which often underpin predictive models of erosion, are highly sensitive to the spatial extent of monitoring. Variations in rockfall shape with volume also imply a systemic shift in the underlying mechanisms of detachment with scale, leading us to question the validity of applying a single probabilistic model to the full range of rockfalls observed here. Finally, our data emphasize the importance of cliff retreat as an episodic process. Going forwards, there will a pressing need to understand and model the erosional response of such coastlines to rising global sea levels as well as projected changes to winds, tides, wave climates, precipitation and storm events. The methodologies and data presented here are fundamental to achieving this, marking a step-change in our ability to understand the competing effects of different processes in determining the magnitude and frequency of rockfall activity and ultimately meaning that we are better placed to investigate relationships between process and form/erosion at critical, regional scales. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

On the small-scale fractal geometrical structure of a living coral reef barrier

The topographical complexity of coral reefs is of primary importance for a number of hydrodynamical and ecological processes. The present study is based on a series of high-resolution seabottom elevation measurements along the Maupiti Barrier Reef, French Polynesia. Several statistical metrics and spectral analysis are used to characterize the spatial evolution of the coral geometrical structure from the reef crest to the backreef. A consistent fractal-like power law exists in the spectral density of bottom elevation for length scales between 0.1 and 7 m, while at larger scale, the reef structure shows a different pattern. Such a fine characterization of the reef geometrical structure provides key elements to reconstruct the reef history, to improve the representation of reef roughness in hydrodynamical models and to monitor the evolution of coral reef systems in the context of global change. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sub-annual moraine formation at an active temperate Icelandic glacier

This paper presents detailed geomorphological and sedimentological investigations of small recessional moraines at Fjallsjökull, an active temperate outlet of Öræfajökull, southeast Iceland. The moraines are characterized by striking sawtooth or hairpin planforms, which are locally superimposed, giving rise to a complex spatial pattern. We recognize two distinct populations of moraines, namely a group of relatively prominent moraine ridges (mean height ~1.2 m) and a group of comparatively low-relief moraines (mean height ~0.4 m). These two groups often occur in sets/systems, comprising one pronounced outer ridge and several inset smaller moraines. Using a representative subsample of the moraines, we establish that they form by either (i) submarginal deformation and squeezing of subglacial till or (ii) pushing of extruded tills. Locally, proglacial (glaciofluvial) sediments are also incorporated within the moraines during pushing. For the first time, to our knowledge, we demonstrate categorically that these moraines formed sub-annually using repeat uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery. We present a conceptual model for sub-annual moraine formation at Fjallsjökull that proposes the sawtooth moraine sequence comprises (i) sets of small squeeze moraines formed during melt-driven squeeze events and (ii) larger push moraines formed during winter re-advances. We suggest the development of this process-form regime is linked to a combination of elevated temperatures, high surface meltwater fluxes to the bed and emerging basal topography (a depositional overdeepening). These factors result in highly saturated subglacial sediments and high porewater pressures, which induces submarginal deformation and ice-marginal squeezing during the melt season. Strong glacier recession during the summer, driven by elevated temperatures, allows several squeeze moraines to be emplaced. This process-form regime may be characteristic of active temperate glaciers receding into overdeepenings during phases of elevated temperatures, especially where their englacial drainage systems allow efficient transfer of surface meltwater to the glacier bed near the snout margin. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Algal Cultivation for Treating Wastewater in African Developing Countries: A Review

The tremendous increase in human population and rapid decline in freshwater resources have necessitated the development of innovative and sustainable wastewater treatment methods. Africa as a developing continent is currently backing on sustainable solutions to tackle impending water resource crisis brought forward by wastewater‐induced environmental pollution and climate change. Microalgae‐based wastewater treatment systems represent an emerging technology that is capable of meeting the new demand for improved wastewater treatment and climate change mitigation strategies in an environmentally friendly manner. This review critically looks at the opportunities of Africa in harnessing and exploiting the potential of microalgae for the treatment of various wastewaters based on their capacity to recycle nutrients and for concurrent production of valuable biomass and several useful metabolites. Wastewaters, if improperly/completely untreated and discharged, simultaneously pollute freshwater sources and present significant health and environmental risks. Nutrients in wastewater can be utilized and recovered in the form of marketable biomass and products when integrated with the cultivation of microalgae. Several valuable bioproducts can be generated from wastewater‐grown microalgal biomass including biofuels, biofertilizers, animal feed, and various bioactive compounds. This biorefinery approach would most certainly improve wastewater treatment process economics, enhancing the technical feasibility of algae‐based wastewater remediation in African countries.     

Constant‐ductility response spectra for sequential earthquake and tsunami loading

Simplified approaches for examining structural system response under sequential earthquake and tsunami loading are helpful for understanding response trends. To aid understanding, nonlinear (constant‐ductility) response spectra are developed for elastoplastic single degree of freedom systems subjected to seismic loads followed by hydrodynamic tsunami loads. The forcing function is composed of long‐duration earthquake motion concatenated with a range of tsunami hydrodynamic forces that are proportional to the pseudo‐spectral acceleration produced by the earthquake motion. The constant‐ductility spectra are thus constructed for scenarios where the loading imposed by one hazard is not dominant over the other. The spectra and basic intensity measures indicate that the amplification of response for sequential earthquake and tsunami loading over the earthquake only case is most significant for systems with long natural periods and high‐ductility capacity under seismic loading. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interactions of Chlorine with Natural Organic Matter and Formation of Intermediates: Evidence by Differential Spectroscopy

This communication describes the use of differential absorbance spectroscopy to explore the intermediates formed during halogenation of natural organic matter (NOM). The differential spectra of chlorinated NOM comprise two contributions. The primary component is negative and has a peak near 270 nm. The shape of this band is independent of chlorine dose, and its intensity increases monotonically with Cl₂ dose. The second component is positive, with a well‐defined peak near 280 nm and another, broader band in the 340...380 nm range. The second component is noticeable at low chlorine concentrations but disappears with increasing Cl₂ dose. We attribute this component to aromatic chlorinated intermediates formed prior to the release of identifiable smaller species such as haloacetic acids. We believe that this component of the differential spectra can be used to probe the identity, formation and breakdown of the halogenated intermediates.